Six years after parting company with Ireland, Gatland’s first encounter with his former assistant will be a match to decide the Triple Crown. Although Gatland has downplayed any personal grievance that may linger after his surprise replacement as Ireland head coach, one senses a victory would be some recompense.
For once there were few surprises in the team announcement with the only real dilemma surrounding fly half and Gatland has chosen to start with the leadership and experience of Jones ahead of the raw ability of Hook.
I think that this decision indicates that Gatland has opted for a disciplined and structured approach to beat the Irish at Croke Park in an attempt to deny Ireland the building blocks of their performance.
I suspect that Wales will not be kicking directly to touch and will try to avoid conceding any lineouts because both Ireland and Munster use their lineout supremacy to establish their dominance. They set up the drive and either gain considerable territory or force the penalty which brings O’Gara into the game to pick up points or gain even more ground.
Wales do not compete that well on opposition throws which means that not conceding the lineout is the only option.
This was the tactic against England but, in the first half, Hook seemed to veer away from that idea and gave England too many lineouts. However, for this strategy to work, the chase must be consistently good, and pressure on a recovering full back makes the tactic even more appealing.
From an attacking perspective, Wales will be looking to isolate O’Gara and to run at him. His defensive frailty is targeted by most teams but few are able to expose his deficiencies because he is so well protected.
Munster will often drop one or even two players out of a defensive lineout to stand in the backline to bolster the defence. They are prepared to be two players light in the lineout just to prevent a line break and if Ireland choose to do that against Wales then the Welsh pack must drive the lineout in return and force the opposition to be honest.
The best way to isolate O’Gara is from the scrum but teams get sucked into attacking Hayes and Horan in an attempt to demolish the weak Irish scrum.
However, both these props have spent most of their careers under pressure at the scrum and rarely have either Munster or Ireland lost matches because of their inadequacies. Indeed the great ploy that has served them well is to reset as many scrums as possible and frequently Ireland have won the penalty counts for infringements at the scrum.
I think that Wales would be better off concentrating on manipulating the scrum and turning it to our advantage and creating the mismatches that could release runners into the channels that we want.
But O’Gara is not in the team for his tackling, he’s there to control the game with his kicking ability. In contrast to Wales he will have little problem in kicking to touch and forcing Bennett and the Welsh lineout to secure its own possession against a formidable competing unit.
I still have my concerns about this aspect of Wales’ game as I feel that there is a brittleness to it that is almost tangible. Alun Wyn Jones returns which gives me some confidence but Jonathan Thomas must be astute in his calls to keep the Irish jumpers off balance.
The other thing that I would do if I were coaching Ireland would be to target Mike Phillips. He has deservedly gained the number nine shirt and has matured considerably this season. However, there is a fire burning within him which is never far from the surface and I would guess that the Irish team will do their best to draw him into a fight.
They will niggle, sledge and do anything they can to take his attention away from the game plan. The other way to play against Phillips is to offer him a small gap on the fringes and see if you can entice him to go for the break while the backrow are waiting for him.
Phillips is a better player this year than ever before and he will need to be at his most disciplined to cope with the tension and the temptation that comes his way.
The game will be tight and I cannot foresee Wales crumbling into abject humiliation as they have done at times away to Ireland. This side looks to have a spirit and character that simply won‘t allow that to happen.
I am also sure that this Welsh side is improving and will continue to do so as Gatland and Edwards exert further influence over their charges. I also think that this Irish side has played its best rugby and that the spark is no longer there. They remain a more than competent side but for me the momentum is with the visitors and so, for me, it’s Wales by five and a Triple Crown.
Gwyn Jones is part of S4C’s Six Nations Rugby coverage team.
© 2008 S4C
O Gymru / Made in Wales