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The Expert View
Gwyn Jones 12 March 2009
Gwyn Jones column, for Western Mail, 12 March Italy are not a good side. The pack, although aggressive, cannot dominate the opposition without the driving line-out and Italy's attempt to replace the half backs Troncon and Dominguez has now entered its fourth year.
The trip to Rome had at one time threatened to become a real test in the Six Nations but is in danger of turning into little more than a sight-seeing trip with eighty minutes of light rugby relief.
That may sound harsh when you consider that Italy have matched us win for win in the last five years and that the only occasions that Wales have won was during Grand Slam campaigns. However, I don't think it is too unfair as Italy have failed to move forward in any sense. They look a tired team that is desperately hanging on to the teams ahead of them.
Having had a good look at the way Italy have played recently, it is clear that they are lacking in many departments. For many years, the cunning half-back pairing of Troncon and Dominguez could often marshall the team and hide its inadequacies at the same time. But even if they were still playing today, I'm not sure whether they could galvanise the current squad.
I admit that Gatland's selections did surprise me, especially when he announced in the aftermath of the Paris defeat that he would now make less changes than planned for Rome. It begs the question how many changes was he thinking of making? I think I'd better get the boots ready just in case!
Saturday will be anything but unpredictable. The only way that Italy can pull off a shock is if they were to fluke an early lead with a lucky bounce or a shocker from the referee. But even then they would need some terrible Welsh indiscipline in the first half - a sending off or a string of yellow cards - for Italy just to hang in there.
Wales are a good side despite the loss against France. It's time that we became confident as a nation that we can go away to places and win. Look at the confidence that New Zealand, South Africa and Australia have when they come over here. This is not overconfidence or even arrogance (that's England's job, or it used to be), this is us having rightly placed self belief.
I think Wales will win by a fifteen points margin at least. That would do our points difference no harm whatsoever as we turn our attention to the decider in Cardiff next week and a showdown against the Irish.